基于改进突变级数法的长江下游水资源承载力评价

摘要：随着水资源短缺问题的日益严峻，水资源承载力研究成为区域可持续发展研究中的一个重要课题。为了克服人为主观排序的影响以及评分结果偏高的问题，提出了区域水资源承载力评价的改进突变级数法，并将其應用于长江下游。建立了由水资源供需、生态、经济、社会四个方面的17项指标组成的指标体系并对江西、安徽、江苏、浙江、上海五省市水资源承载力进行了评价。结果表明：（1）改进突变级数法可较为客观地对指标进行排序，且评价结果准确、分级明显。（2）时间上，五省市水资源承载力整体均呈上升趋势，在个别年份有较大波动，且与旱灾年份相一致。（3）空间上，2005-2015年五省市水资源承载能力综合排序为浙江省>江西省>安徽省≈江苏省>上海市。（4）从子系统要素来看，长江下游水资源供需要素波动较大，生态、经济要素稳定增长，社会要素几乎不变且评分最低，今后工作的重点是提高用水效率以及加强水利设施建设以增强应对灾害年的能力。

关键词：水资源承载力；长江下游地区；改进突变级数法；时间空间分析

中图分类号：TV213.4文献标志码：A文章编号：16721683（2018）03002409

Assessment of water resources carrying capacity based on improved catastrophe progression method：

a case study in the lower reaches of Yangtze River

SONG Fan，YANG Xiaohua

（State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation， School of Environment， Beijing

Normal University， Beijing 100875， China）

Abstract：With the increasing shortage of water resources，the research on water resources carrying capacity has become an important topic in the study of regional sustainable development.In order to reduce the influence of subjective sorting of indexes and to solve the problem of high scoring in results，we proposed an improved catastrophe progression method for the assessment of water resources carrying capacity，and applied it to the lower reaches of the Yangtze River area from 20052015.An evaluation index system consisting of seventeen indexes in four aspects （water supply and demand，ecological，economic，social） has been constructed to evaluate the water resources carrying capacity of Jiangxi，Anhui，Jiangsu，Zhejiang， and Shanghai.The results showed that the improved catastrophe progression method could be used to sort the indexes objectively，and the evaluation results were accurate and clearly graded.In terms of time，the water carrying capacity of the five provinces was all on the upward trend，but it decreased significantly in certain years，which coincided with the drought years.In terms of space，the integrated rankings of water resources carrying capacity in 20052015 were Zhejiang province>Jiangxi province>Anhui province≈Jiangsu province>Shanghai.In terms of the element layer，the water supply and demand element fluctuated greatly，the ecological and economic elements were growing steadily，and the social element seldom changed and had the lowest score.So we suggest to enhance the utilization efficiency of water resources，and to strengthen water conservancy construction to improve the capability of disaster response.

Key words：water resources carrying capacity；the lower reaches of the Yangtze River area；improved catastrophe progression method；time and space analysis